Earth Overshoot Day is an annual initiative by Global Footprint Network and the Scottish EPA that calculates humanity’s Ecological Footprint in balance with the biological resources that the planet’s natural ecosystems can sustainably regenerate. (Earth Overshoot Day marks the date when humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year exceeds what Earth can regenerate in that year. )
Since 1970, we have systematically been using more of the planet's resources than it can regenerate. Essentially this means that we will use 1.7 earth's resources to sustain the planet this year. Over the past 40+ years, we are in an escalating resources debt.
To determine the date of Earth Overshoot Day, Global Footprint Network calculates the number of days that Earth’s biocapacity can provide for humanity’s Ecological Footprint, as explained on this page. The methodology relies on the latest edition of the National Footprint and Biocapacity Accounts, which unavoidably presents a “time gap” with the present time due to United Nations’ reporting procedures.
To address this “gap” and determine Earth Overshoot Day for the current year, Global Footprint Network establishes trendlines from the National Footprint and Biocapacity Accounts data and extends those trendlines to the present year. Where possible, more recent data from reputable sources (Global Carbon Project, International Energy Agency (IEA), etc.) are incorporated to strengthen the assessment for the “gap” years.
Changes in carbon emissions and forest biocapacity from January 1st to Earth Overshoot Day 2021 were evaluated. The research team concluded a 6.6% increase in the global Ecological Footprint compared to 2020. As reported by IEA, the global pandemic induced lockdowns caused an initial sharp drop on CO2 emissions in 2020. However, emissions increased again during the second half 2020. At the end of the year, total emissions were reported to be 5.8% lower than 2019 emissions due to the global pandemic.
Combined with the most recent data from the Global Carbon Project, Global Footprint Network estimate a 6.6% increase in the carbon Footprint for 2021 compared to the year prior. The second notable change was the effect of Amazon deforestation and degradation on global forest biocapacity. The research team estimates a 0.5% decrease in global forest biocapacity.
The downloadable research report documents these drivers. The result of all data extrapolations and analyzed factors concluded that Earth Overshoot Day 2021 lands on July 29.
Earth Overshoot isn't the only measure telling us that we need three to five times more action to reduce CO2 emissions in view of meeting the Paris Agreement 1.5°C. Opportunities stem from all sectors of the economy: commercially available technologies or services, local governments’ development strategies, national public policies, or best practices supported by civil society initiatives and academia.
In the run up to COP26, Earth Overshhot Day are posting and showcasing many ways we can use existing technology to displace business as usual practices we can no longer afford.
With a world still largely unprepared, and growing concerns about recent extreme weather events, representatives of national governments will gather 100 days from now at what has been deemed the last-chance summit for global climate action – the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow.
Scottish innovation helped lead the Industrial Revolution so hopefully the Glasgow summit will be the leadership turning point for the Net-Zero Revolution.